Much has been written this year about the Hispanic vote, both its impact nationally and who it’s likely to break for. While Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and their main issues of concern may vary from ethnicity to ethnicity and from state to state, a vast majority of Latinos agree that jobs and the economy is the most important issue in the November elections. Even still, for months President Obama held a significant lead amongst Hispanics. However, a number of recent polls in swing states suggest that may be changing.Florida Hispanics:A new Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times poll shows Gov. Romney pulling even – slightly ahead in fact – of President Obama amongst Hispanics, a marked shift from just a few months ago.
Florida Hispanics we’re asked: If the election were today, who would get your vote?
Shift
Oct 8-10
Sept 17-19
+3
Romney 46%
Romney 43%
-8
Obama 44%
Obama 52%
+5
Undecided 10%
Undecided 5%
The Tampa Bay Times says this of the change: “Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points.”
Hispanics in Battleground states:
Also interestingly, in late September, a separate poll among battleground states from impreMedia and Latino Decisions shows that the gap amongst Hispanics may be closing:
Sept 21-27:
Hispanic voters who say they would likely vote for President Obama if the election were held today
61%
Hispanic voters who say they would likely vote for Governor Romney if the election were held today
33%
Compared to the National numbers in the same poll:
Hispanic voters who say they would likely vote for President Obama if the election were held today
73%
Hispanic voters who say they would likely vote for Governor Romney if the election were held today
21%
While there is still a 28-point difference in this battleground poll, at a time when Latino voters are really focusing on the policy debate in our country, there are signs of what could be a trend in favor of the conservative candidate amongst Hispanics. This also shows the difference in looking at the numbers state by state rather than nationally.
Also of note, in the battleground states poll, 50% of Hispanics say they plan to vote Democrat in the congressional races, while 32% plan to vote Republican. 18% say they are undecided.
In terms of party affiliation, 17% of Hispanics identified themselves as Republican, 45% as Democrat, and 31% as Independents.
